Former Chief Economist & Director of Analytics, Gardner Intelligence
The combination of strong production and new orders growth along with elevated backlog readings gives Gardner Intelligence reason to believe that the manufacturing sector will experience a very strong 2018. All components, except for exports, indicate very high expansion levels.
Production expansion in each of the last four months has exceeded the highest levels experienced during the last two cycle peaks. This sustained record-setting production environment is having a delayed but very significant effect on supplier deliveries.
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Registering 59.5 for April, the Gardner Business Index (GBI): Metalworking was unchanged from the prior month. The index reading calculated among only job shops was down slightly from March. Compared to the same month one year ago, the Metalworking Index grew by 7.4 percent. April’s reading ties with March’s for the second highest in the index’s history. ’s review of the underlying data for March indicates that strong expansion in supplier deliveries, production and new orders drove the business index higher. Readings for employment, backlog and exports lowered the index’s average-based calculation. All components of the Metalworking Index, including exports, expanded during April.
The interruption after what had been three straight months of slowing contraction may indicate growing conservatism as interest rates and inflation fail to come down.
A sharp increase in future business expectations underscores hopeful conditions in 2025.
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